A significant shift in on-chain Bitcoin activity suggests that heightened price volatility may be imminent, according to the latest insights from analytics firm CryptoQuant.
CryptoQuant: “Volatility Is Coming”
In an April 18 update, CryptoQuant flagged that a large batch of Bitcoin — around 170,000 BTC — originally acquired between three and six months ago has recently started moving on-chain.
This group of holders, often referred to as short-term holders (STHs), is historically known for contributing to sharp price swings when they begin moving assets.
“Around 170,000 BTC are moving from the 3–6 month holder cohort,” wrote analyst Mignolet in the firm’s latest Quicktake post.
“Large movements from this group often signal that significant volatility is imminent.”
Accompanying data shows this is the most substantial STH activity since late 2021. Past trends indicate that when coins from this timeframe start circulating, it typically precedes notable price volatility — though not necessarily in one direction. Both bullish and bearish outcomes have followed similar events.
Short-Term Holders Driving Selling Pressure
CryptoQuant also attributes recent market softness to short-term holders, who are often more reactive to market sentiment and short-lived narratives. These entities — defined as those who bought BTC within the past six months — tend to respond quickly to downside pressure, sometimes contributing to cascade selling.
“Short-Term Holders have been the primary sellers, sending an average of ~930 BTC/day to exchanges,” noted contributor Crazzyblockk in a separate Quicktake post. “In contrast, Long-Term Holders moved only ~529 BTC/day — highlighting short-term fear or profit-taking, while long-term conviction remains intact.”
This pattern suggests that while short-term traders may be exiting the market or taking profits, long-term investors are showing little signs of concern.
Not a Mass Exit — Just a Shakeout
Despite the recent price correction and sideways trading, CryptoQuant analysts don’t see signs of panic from long-term holders or institutional investors. Instead, the firm characterizes current movements as a “classic shakeout” — a scenario in which weaker hands are flushed out during a period of low volatility and market consolidation.
“This cohort-driven breakdown helps us understand that the current correction is not a mass exodus by smart money,” Crazzyblockk explained.
“It’s more likely a reaction from nervous short-term and mid-tier holders.”
What’s Next for Bitcoin?
With Bitcoin hovering in a low-volatility range and short-term holders actively moving funds, the market may be gearing up for a sharp price move. However, the direction — up or down — remains uncertain.
As always, investors should keep an eye on on-chain metrics and sentiment signals to navigate what could be a volatile period ahead.
